Early signs house prices are flattening

29 March, 2010

Property values are above the same time last year according to the QV residential property indices for February released today. While the year on year change has increased further to 5.5 percent, values in the last few months have flattened in many areas. Nationally, values are now 3.9 percent below the peak of the market in late 2007.

The National average sales price also increased to $416,074 in February, up from $409,807 in January. While roughly indicative of value, the average sales price is a less reliable measure of change than the QV index as averages can be biased depending on which part of the market is active.

Glenda Whitehead of QV Valuations said “the annual change in values across New Zealand has continued to increase from last month, but this is masking what has happened in the most recent months. In the main urban areas, values have grown since mid 2009, but that rate of growth has recently begun to slow. In the provincial areas, this growth has slowed even more, and across the rural residential areas house values decreased slightly over the last month”.

Whitehead said “after a relatively quiet January, things seem to be returning to normal. Sales activity picked up over February and is back to similar levels to that observed throughout 2009. There has also been a significant increase in new listings, and we would expect this to convert to higher sales numbers in the coming months. The increase in sales and listings are both to be expected as February and March are typically the busiest months of the year”.

“The market remains patchy and buyers cautious. Well presented, good quality properties are continuing to sell quickly and at healthy values, whereas those with less desirable attributes are proving hard to shift. There is activity at the lower end of the market, driven mostly by first home buyers. Fewer investors are actively buying, and some are selling their investment properties now rather than waiting for the changes in property tax to be announced in the May budget” said Whitehead.

“The banks continue to take a cautious approach to lending, with property valuations required where the borrower has a relatively low deposit” said Whitehead.

Whitehead said “there is an increase in the number of new houses being built, but many of these are for clients under contract. Builders are still struggling to secure finance if they do not have these underlying sale agreements. Demand for new houses is steady but still nowhere near the boom levels of a few years ago when they couldn’t be built quickly enough”.

“We expect values to stabilise over the coming months reflecting the ongoing uncertainty around economic factors such as employment, pending interest rate rises and continued tight lending criteria. We may see more certainty in the market after the May budget announcement when personal tax cuts are known, changes to property taxation are specified, and interest rate changes are clearer” said Whitehead.

Values in the Auckland Region have continued to increase in recent months and are now 8.7 percent up on the same time last year. The Wellington Area is 6.7 percent up, and Christchurch 6.9 percent up. Values in the other main centres have been stable in recent months, but still remain above last year by 4.3 percent in Hamilton, 1.0 percent in Tauranga, and 6.2 percent in Dunedin.

Unlike the main centres, values in the provincial centres have been more variable over recent months, although values are still above the same time last year in almost all areas. Rotorua is 2.5 percent up, Gisborne 2.6, Napier 5.9, New Plymouth 7.9, Wanganui 1.1, Palmerston North 6.1, Nelson 5.5, Queenstown Lakes 0.8, and Invercargill 4.3 percent. Whangarei is the only centre still below last year at 1.8 percent although this has improved since last month.

View the full press release

View the full press release http://www.qv.co.nz/aboutus/pressreleases/earlysignsofhousepricesstabilising08032010.htm